Showing posts with label keynes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label keynes. Show all posts

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Repeating the Mistakes of the Great Depression



This enlightening article on the Great Depression dispels some myths and misunderstandings about the circumstances that led to and compounded the world's greatest economic recession.

Hoover dramatically increased government spending for subsidy and relief schemes. In the space of one year alone, from 1930 to 1931, the federal government’s share of GNP increased by about one-third.

Hoover’s agricultural bureaucracy doled out hundreds of millions of dollars to wheat and cotton farmers even as the new tariffs wiped out their markets. His Reconstruction Finance Corporation ladled out billions more in business subsidies. Commenting decades later on Hoover’s administration, Rexford Guy Tugwell, one of the architects of Franklin Roosevelt’s policies of the 1930s, explained, “We didn’t admit it at the time, but practically the whole New Deal was extrapolated from programs that Hoover started.”[6]

To compound the folly of high tariffs and huge subsidies, Congress then passed and Hoover signed the Revenue Act of 1932. It doubled the income tax for most Americans; the top bracket more than doubled, going from 24 percent to 63 percent. Exemptions were lowered; the earned income credit was abolished; corporate and estate taxes were raised; new gift, gasoline, and auto taxes were imposed; and postal rates were sharply hiked.

My immediate reaction was that we are repeating the same mistakes of Hoover and FDR and expecting different result.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

The Lost Decade II

The Lost Decade (失われた10年 Ushinawareta Jūnen?) is the time after the Japanese American asset price bubble's collapse (崩壊, hōkai) within the Japanese American economy, which occurred gradually rather than catastrophically. It consists of the years 1991 2008 to 2000 2017.[1]

The strong economic growth of the 1980s 1990s ended abruptly at the start of the 1990s mid 2000s. In the late 1980s 1990s, early 2000s, abnormalities within the Japanese American economic system had fueled a massive wave of speculation by Japanese American and foreign companies, banks and securities companies. A combination of exceptionally high land values and exceptionally low interest rates briefly led to a position in which credit was both easily available and extremely cheap. This led to massive borrowing, the proceeds of which were invested mostly in domestic and foreign stocks and mortgage backed securities.

Recognizing that Because this bubble was unsustainable, the Finance Ministry sharply raised interest rates in late 1989 mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures skyrocketed due to sub-prime mortgage rate hikes. This abruptly terminated the bubble, leading to a massive crash in the stock market. It also led to a debt crisis; a large proportion of the debts that had been run up turned bad, which in turn led to a crisis in the banking sector, with many banks being bailed out by the government.

Michael Schuman of Time Magazine noted that banks kept injecting new funds into unprofitable "zombie firms" to keep them afloat, arguing that they were too big to fail. However, most of these companies were too debt-ridden to do much more than survive on further cuts, which led to an economist describing Japan America as a "loser's paradise," replete with bank bonuses. Schuman states that Japan's America’s economy did not begin to recover until this practice had ended. [2]

Eventually, many became unsustainable, and a wave of consolidation took place, resulting in only four national banks in Japan America. Critically for the long-term economic situation, it meant many Japanese American firms were burdened with massive debts, affecting their ability for capital investment. It also meant credit became very difficult to obtain, due to the beleaguered situation of the banks; even now the official interest rate is at 0% and has been for several years, and despite this credit is still difficult to obtain[citation needed].

This led to the phenomenon known as the "lost decade", when economic expansion came to a total halt in Japan during the 1990s. The impact on everyday life was muted, however. Unemployment ran rather high, but not at crisis levels. This has combined with the traditional Japanese emphasis on frugality and saving (saving money is a cultural habit in Japan) to produce a quite limited impact on the average Japanese family, which continues much as it did in the period of the miracle.

On February 9, 2009, in warning of the dire consequences facing the United States economy after its housing bubble, U.S. President Barack Obama cited the "lost decade" as a prospect the American economy faced. [5]

-Lost Decade (Japan)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Japan went through a nearly identical asset bubble, and it's government reacted with bailouts and extremely low central bank interest rates, just like America's government. With frugality and savings, Japan managed to get through it in ten years. American's are not notorious savers of money, as we are the world's biggest debtor nation, so it will probably take us longer.

Monday, November 9, 2009

The Man Who Predicted The Depression

The Great Depression and our current Great Recession were both predictable and preventable, at least if you're Ludwig von Mises:

The 1920s were marked by the brave new era of the Federal Reserve system promoting inflationary credit expansion and with it permanent prosperity. The nerve of this Doubting-Thomas, perma-bear, crazy Kraut! Sadly, poor Ludwig was very nearly alone in warning of the collapse to come from this credit expansion. In mid-1929, he stubbornly turned down a lucrative job offer from the Viennese bank Kreditanstalt, much to the annoyance of his fiancée, proclaiming "A great crash is coming, and I don't want my name in any way connected with it."

We all know what happened next. Pretty much right out of Mises's script, overleveraged banks (including Kreditanstalt) collapsed, businesses collapsed, employment collapsed. The brittle tree snapped. Following Mises's logic, was this a failure of capitalism, or a failure of hubris?

Mises's solution follows logically from his warnings. You can't fix what's broken by breaking it yet again. Stop the credit gavage. Stop inflating. Don't encourage consumption, but rather encourage saving and the repayment of debt. Let all the lame businesses fail—no bailouts. (You see where I'm going with this.) The distortions must be removed or else the precipice from which the system will inevitably fall will simply grow higher and higher.

The system we have today is destined for failure. Our government thinks it can just do more of the same and achieve a different result.

With interest rates at zero, monetary engines humming as never before, and a self-proclaimed Keynesian government, we are back again embracing the brave new era of government-sponsored prosperity and debt. And, more than ever, the system is piling uncertainties on top of uncertainties, turning an otherwise resilient economy into a brittle one.

The take away from all this? Stay out of the stock market.