Super Bowl XLV Predictions

Two of the oldest NFL franchises. Two of the most aggressive defenses. Two of the most challenging quarterbacks. Two of the best fan bases. Green Bay. Pittsburgh.

It will be a battle for the ages. So how will it go down?


Steeler Offense vs. Packer Defense

The Packer defense has consistently shown up, game after game. With stalwarts like Raji holding the line, Matthews rushing the passer, Woodson covering the slot, and a couple of young talented corners, the Packer defense has playmakers at every level. But how do they stack up to the Steelers offense?

Up front, the Steelers have a patchwork line with only one original starter, left guard Chris Kemoeatu. However, despite the injury bug, this unit of backups has jelled down the stretch, and is playing decent football. The Steelers have also used extra tight ends to shore up pass coverage and to run the ball. Green Bay's defense is strongest against the pass, and I think they can be run on. Pittsburgh showed last week against the Jets that even without Pro-Bowl center Markice Pouncey, Mendenhall can still scratch out yards in chunks.

The Steelers have exceptional strength under center, with arguably the strongest QB in the NFL, Ben Roethlisberger. His size, strength, and mobility can frustrate pass rushers, but his patchwork protection can leave him vulnerable at times. Against Green Bay's elite secondary, and strong pass rush, I expect Ben to have a challenging day, and to take multiple sacks.

Speaking of the Packer secondary, they are perhaps the best in the NFL. Look for them to play the pass with an extra corner back. Pittsburgh's wide receivers will have a hard time separating, so look for Ben to target mismatches with his rookie recievers, Sanders and Brown, as well as tight end Heath Miller.

I predict the Packers will limit the Steeler's passing attack, while having trouble stopping the run. Though Pittsburgh's offensive line is in shambles, they have proven they can still win in the trenches.


Packer Offense vs. Steeler Defense

Aaron Rodgers has become the hottest name in football, and deservedly so. He has pinpoint accuracy, great movement, and terrific speed for a quarterback. Pittsburgh has struggled against top-flight QBs, losing to both Tom Brady and Drew Brees in the regular season. Look for Rodgers and his great receivers to attack Pittsburgh's mediocre secondary.

Up front, Green Bay's line has struggled to protect Rodgers. The sack numbers don't show it, as Rodgers is talented at evading the rush and making the play, but he has spent a great deal of time this season running from pass rushers. His speed and ability to make plays on the run make him very dangerous regardless of his protection, so containment with pressure will be the key for Pittsburgh's defensive front.

Remember, those Pittsburgh front seven have become one of the best in NFL history at stopping the run. Green Bay lost their star running back early in the season, but have been riding back-up James Starks through the playoffs. He runs strong, with conviction, but he hasn't faced a defense like this before. I see the Green Bay running game being fairly limited in the contest, relying on Rodgers using the pass to set up the run.

Ultimately, the Packers will have success through the air, but will struggle in the run game unless it can force the Steelers into a nickle defense.


Special Teams

Both teams have struggled on special teams this year, so I see this matchup to be relatively even. Steelers have had some success with Antonio Brown returning kicks, but he's certainly no Devin Hester. A big play by either team on special teams is possible, and could greatly affect the outcome.

As for kickers, neither are top of the class. Both are adequate, but don't expect great accuracy on field goals or long kickoffs for touchbacks.


My Prediction

These teams are mirror images of each other. Elite 3-4 defenses, mobile playmaking quarterbacks, and talented wide receivers. Both teams emphasize developing draft picks over trading for free agents. Both come from old football towns with incredible fans. Both poised to win the biggest game in football. But only one can be crowned champion.

Very little separates these teams. Green Bay can score points through the air, and Pittsburgh can score points on the ground. Green Bay has enough talent to beat Pittsburgh, but ultimately, I think it comes down to Pittsburgh's experience in the big game mixed with the ability to ground and pound. It will be close, but even if it comes down to the final drive, no one has proven he can finish playoff games better than Ben Roethlisberger.

My pick: Steelers, in a thriller.

Puff Daddy and Magic Johnson to Buy Buffalo Bills, Bring NFL back to LA

Sean "Puffy" Combs and Magic Johnson have both been making noises about buying an NFL franchise and bringing it to LA.

Puffy is estimated to be worth about half a billion, and Magic just sold his stake in the Lakers as well as his many Starbucks franchises, and both have expressed interest in moving the Buffalo Bills to LA.

Together, with their money, clout, and business acumen, they could do it. And they probably will.

Neat huh?

BP/Transocean Criminally Negligent

(photo: US coast guard via AP via NYTimes)

New evidence has come to light that workers on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig had safety concerns about the rig. Many components were in poor repair, and many of the working practices were unsound.

According to a separate 112-page equipment assessment also commissioned by Transocean, many key components — including the blowout preventer rams and failsafe valves — had not been fully inspected since 2000, even though guidelines require its inspection every three to five years.

The report cited at least 26 components and systems on the rig that were in “bad” or “poor” condition.

Eleven workers died when the rig exploded.

But my question is this: even if BP and Transocean are found criminally negligent, can the government actually assess a fair punishment? I'm sure there will be some hefty fines involved, but BP is a huge corporation and can probably absorb the losses.

Will anyone at BP actually pay for the poor practices that led to eleven deaths and unmeasurable environmental damage? I do not believe we will see a punishment equal to the crime, which basically makes our legal system pointless. If I commit a heinous crime while trying to increase profits, and my only punishment is to have to give some of those profits back, there is hardly enough incentive for me to stop my immoral practices, and definitely not enough incentive for me to avoid those practices from the start. The punishment must fit the crime.

I think about it like NFL football. Sometimes, players will incur penalties if they think the benefit will outweigh the 5 yards their team will lose. Often, they are right, especially if the play helps their team score, or prevents the other team from scoring. In this way, players have gamed the system. They break the rules to get ahead, even though they get penalized it's still worth it.

As soon as the NFL leadership realizes that the system has been gamed, they modify the penalties to make them hurt more, to prevent players from wanting to break the rules. Example: players were going for hard, bone crushing hits whenever they could, to rattle their opponents and possibly injure them and put them out of the game. The NFL realized that people were getting hurt, and that the game could be broken by an unscrupulous team.

The NFL added new rules restricting helmet to helmet contact, and made it a personal foul, with came with the maximum penalty of 15 yards, plus monetary fines for the offending player.. This had the predictable effect of reducing hard head to head collisions, and made the game safer and more enjoyable for everyone by effectively modifying the rules and increasing the punishments.

We are clearly living in an era where unscrupulous business practices are causing widespread harm to our society. We need good government and leadership now more than ever, but our politicians are tied so tightly to businesses they should be regulating that they cannot, or will not, modify our rules and punishments to promote a fairer, safer society.

This is one of the great failures of our leadership today, and comes as a consequence of corporations having better Congressional representation than regular citizens, which in turn is a consequence of our money-soaked political system.

Superbowl 44: Saints 31, Colts 17

Pictured: Drew Brees and son Baylen

[Photo stolen from NYTimes]

Saints, Colts Hoping To Resolve Super Bowl Through Diplomacy

MIAMI—Team officials from the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts emerged from a tense, 12-hour negotiating session Thursday and told reporters that, while they had yet to reach a settlement that would prevent a massive on-field conflict, the AFC and NFC champions were committed to resolving the Super Bowl through diplomatic channels.

"Playing this Super Bowl is our last resort," said NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, who was flanked by the coaches and quarterbacks for the opposing teams. "Yes, there are some difficult issues that need to be hashed out, such as who will be the game's MVP, the number of total passing yards for each quarterback, and which team will be named Super Bowl champion, but I think we made progress today."

"The Colts and the Saints are unwavering in their commitment to avoid any violence and wish to resolve the Super Bowl peacefully, without a single football being thrown," Goodell added.

[The Onion]

How the NFL is Changing Television

Despite my deep love of the NFL, I also know it is a money grubbing machine. However their greed, as it so often does, is leading them to innovate.

Their new service "NFL Game Rewind" allows fans like myself to watch every game from this season and last online, without commercials. The only limit is that you can't watch games live, and the system is off while live NFL games are being played. Other than that, it's the equivalent of having every game from this season and last on DVD.

All this, and the cost to me was a paltry $25. I believe this was a reduced, midseason rate, but regardless it is well worth it to a fan like myself.

As more and more media make the shift to the Internet I hope we see more innovation like we see in the NFL. I imagine they would stream games live, too, if they weren't hampered by their contracts with the major networks.

Cable companies fiercely resist customer demand to buy shows or channels ala carte, but the Internet may allow us to circumvent them completely.

All because greedy companies like the NFL want to make a few extra dollars.

Is Nothing Sacred?

God help us, government overreach has found the N.F.L.

A three-judge panel from the United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, in Minneapolis, last week upheld a lower court ruling that prohibited the N.F.L. from suspending two Minnesota Vikings players who violated the league’s antidoping policy, saying they could contest their suspensions in state court. The ruling was a victory for the players because Minnesota state laws — and laws in about half of all states — are considered worker-friendly and say that an employee cannot be penalized for an initial positive drug test.

American citizens might let the government slide on every other issue, but this is going to cause riots.

Keepin' It Fresh, Old School

With 12:51 left in the 3rd quarter, the Patriots begin their drive from their own 2 yard line after a perfect punt from the Buffalo Bills, who are leading 14-10. The Bills' defense has delivered a touchdown-interception, and the offense the other TD while going completely no-huddle.

The Patriots, with an early field goal and TD, are now driving down the field to the Bills' 45 with 7:44 on the clock. Tom Brady is back, with some strong runs from RB Laurence Maroney. The Patriots drive down the field is hard fought though, and comes to naught, as Buffalo's defense forces them to turn over on downs.

Terrel Owens, who has been surprisingly quiet, gets his first reception with 4:33 left in the 3rd for a first down, but New England holds them to a field goal. I like this game.

and p.s. the NFL is great at making money, they just showed me a video comercial on the live website play diagram. Wonder when they'll have all the games online?